The Sentry tournament kicks off the 2025 season, and this year marks its second as a non-“tournament of champions.” Gone are the days of needing a tournament win to qualify. Now, the field of 60 players is composed of 31 tournament winners and 29 players from the final top 50 of the 2024 FedEx Cup. It still holds significance, though, as all eight FedEx Fall champions will be present at the Kapalua Resort.
This event has been a fixture on the PGA Tour since 1999, and for 25 years, it has marked the beginning of the new season. Defending champion Chris Kirk returns, having triumphed in a shootout last year, finishing 29 under par.
The Plantation Course, which stretches nearly 7,600 yards and is a par-73, will challenge players with its length and elevation changes. The course is one of the longest on Tour, so a solid strategy is essential.
Over the past five years, the average winning score has been 26 under par. The course’s layout—featuring three par 3s, four par 5s, and 11 par 4s—creates a perfect environment for scoring. The par 5s are reachable, and eight of the 11 par 4s are under 425 yards, making birdie opportunities frequent. As you head to Kapalua, pack your birdie-making skills!
Here’s a deeper dive into the expert picks and predictions for the 2025 Sentry tournament.
Expert Picks for The Sentry 2025
Best Bet to Win: Collin Morikawa (+1200 on Bet365)
It’s the start of the 2025 season, and there’s no reason to overthink it. Morikawa has a proven track record with seven top-10 finishes in January tournaments. With five appearances at the Sentry, he’s never finished worse than seventh and has been in contention to win over the past two years. His iron game is solid, and his putting skills on these greens make him one of the favorites.
Best Bet for Top 10 Finish: Sungjae Im (+175 on FanDuel)
Sungjae Im has four starts at Kapalua and has finished in the top 10 three times. In the one event he didn’t, he finished T13. With his powerful driving and excellent short game, Im is a strong contender for a top-10 finish this week.
Best Head-to-Head Bet: Byeong Hun An over Russell Henley (-120 on Bet365)
Byeong Hun An showed considerable improvement last season, working with putting coach John Graham, who helped players like Justin Thomas and Aaron Rai. Henley, meanwhile, finished last in his last outing at the Hero World Challenge. We’re betting on An’s momentum to carry him over Henley in this matchup.
The Sentry 2025: Betting Preview
Looking at past Sentry scoring trends, we can clearly see that power off the tee is not the dominant skill at Kapalua. In fact, scoring from close range—especially around the greens—is more critical. The course’s design favors players who are adept at short-game shots, like wedges into greens from uneven lies.
Many past champions, including Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed, and Cam Smith, are excellent wedge players, excelling in shots from 100 yards and in. For a successful betting card, players with strong wedge games, particularly in proximity from 175-200 yards, should be prioritized.
Key Areas to Focus On:
- Short Game: The course’s par-4s under 425 yards are ideal for wedge shots, so players with strong wedge play from 100-150 yards will shine.
- Putting on Bermuda Greens: The large, sloping greens at Kapalua require precision with lag putting and reading the grain. Players like Morikawa, who are good with their irons and putting, are especially suited for success here.
- Par 3s and Par 5s: The par 3s (175-200 yards) and par 5s (500-550 yards) are important scoring areas to focus on for players looking to take the advantage.
The course is relatively forgiving, with wide fairways and large greens, but with plenty of elevation changes, it still offers challenges for players. Success here will come from those who can putt well and navigate the varied course with their wedge skills.
Live Odds to Win the Sentry 2025
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
- Xander Schauffele +500
- Collin Morikawa +1000
- Justin Thomas +1000
- Ludvig Åberg +1600
- Hideki Matsuyama +1800
… and more.
The Sentry 2025: Course and Conditions
The Plantation Course stretches over a 5.5-mile walk with some tough elevation changes. Players will climb over 900 feet in one round, which could prove challenging after the off-season. The forecast is warm and sunny, with trade winds expected to affect play later in the day.
The Kapalua Resort offers a beautiful, but challenging course, and the weather is expected to be perfect for golf this week. Winds may pick up a bit in the afternoon, but conditions should remain stable overall.
This year, we expect the favorites to show up strong, so keep your betting cards focused on players who can manage the greens and show solid short-game skills. For full coverage and more expert picks, be sure to subscribe to Read The Line and follow us on Twitter for live updates.
